TwitDoc — Further Extending Twitter's Publishing Capabilities

One of the amazing things about Twitter’s simplicity is how well it lends itself to utilization in a variety of ways that weren’t explicitly intended when it was initially designed.

Today TwitDoc is launching what appears to be the first service for sharing documents over Twitter, bringing support for PDFs, Microsoft Office Documents, and a bunch of other file formats.

via TwitDoc: Proving That Every File Format Will Eventually Be Shareable Over Twitter.

My only concern is that the widespread practice of people posting Microsoft Office Documents via TwitDoc can quickly turn Twitter into a new vector for malware in the form of naughty Excel macros and such. Hopefully the folks behind TwitDoc will be actively scanning the files uploaded and shared through their service.

Apple Eyeing Gaming?

Erik Sherman of BNET Technology highlights some interesting points:

Let’s start with the easy evidence: Apple hired Richard Teversham from the entertainment division of Microsoft. The 15-year Microsoft vet most recently headed strategy for the Xbox group in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia.

That’s on the heels of hiring Bob Dreblin, the creator of Nintendo’s Game Cube CPU, from AMD, as well as former top IBM chip design manager Mark Papermaster, and former AMD graphics chip CTO Raja Koduri.

Apple’s has tried at least once to enter the hardware gaming market, and has even made a number of other software attempts, such as Game Sprockets SDK, and even started to sell a handful of games for the “click wheel” iPod, but it wasn’t until the iPhone and its App Store came along that they managed any serious traction.

And with the growing emphasis Apple has been putting on gaming during their iPhone OS new release demonstrations, it’s getting harder to ignore that they’re gearing up to make a big strike here.

Apple Launches A Revolution... and Then Gets Overtaken?

At least, that’s what Richard Wray and Bobbie Johnson of the Guardian conclude:

… while Apple caused a revolution [with the iPhone], it is unlikely to become dominant in the market. It has sold just over 20m iPhones since the first device appeared in 2007; in that time more than 1.5bn phones have been shipped by everyone else. A similar thing happened with the personal computer market. The concept was championed by Apple when it launched Apple II, the worlds first personal computer, in 1977, and the first Macintosh in 1984, but other players now lead the market.

This argument — whose conclusion, for some reason, hinges strictly on unit sales of the iPhone units sold vs. the rest of the phones in the market as a metric for performance — overlooks several critical points:

1. Looking at sales numbers for all phones worldwide is meaningless; rather an examination of the so-called “smart phone” sales numbers would make for more meaningful insights.
2. The iPhone isn’t available in every market — in order to make a meaningful point about its sales performance, they ought to (at least also) isolate its relative performance in the markets the product is actually available in.
3. The rest of their competitors have been selling devices for a decade or more.

I guess it makes for a headline that gets the click-throughs, but since their conclusion is antithetical to the understanding everyone else looking at the iPhone’s market performance has, I would suggest merely that I’d like to see them support their assertion with something slightly more compelling and meaningful than comparing iPhone sales versus the rest of mobile phones on the planet.

The Art of the Reveal

The recent media coverage about Palm having a lower-tier WebOS phone in the works — which I’ve already labled as madness, if true — has gotten me thinking about an old showmanship concept, called the art of the Reveal (or, more simply, the Reveal). It’s a technique exploited by writers, directors, comedians, strippers, politicians, and carnies; anyone in the business of organizing a show.

The idea is real simple: excitement thrives on suspense and anticipation.

The members of the audience expect to be led through a flight of experience — they want ups, downs, twists, and turns. Nothing is more boring and tedious than a predictable sequence of events that lead to some obvious outcome that had been aniticpated all along. Interestingly, in fact, even when an outcome _is_ known in advance (say, as is the case for a narrative based on historical events), the audience can still find the thrills and delight they seek, if the “show” can offer them something they weren’t necessarily specifically expecting at the start.

The capacity to offer the unexpected boils down to managing reveals.

But this isn’t just a technique for playwrites and novelists; it’s also a powerful tactic that can be leveraged in business. Advertisers use it all the time, in designing ad campaigns aiming to generate business for the clientele.

One of the masters at this game is — you knew this was coming — Apple. Though they have received much criticism at various times through the years over their hallmark practices of tight secrecy, it’s impossible to deny just how much anicipation and frenzied suspense they’re able to stir up — every time. They’ve got the formula down.

This is why I contend that Palm’s recent leaks stand to be so detrimental to the Pre’s success.

The fact is that Palm is entering a battlefield against a very well-situated competitor who is a master of this art. I’ve chosen to go with the “battlefield” metaphor for a very particular reason, too — the Reveal is also a vital tool in strategic engagements. Consider what would have happened if the Achaeans built their stories-tall wooden horse at the foot of Troy’s walls.

Of course, we don’t truly know that these “leaks” have any truth to them.

My instinct — and that’s all it is — is unfortunately telling me that there is. As Tahero had [cref 274 commented] yesterday:

[T]he threat of impending doom has a way of making one’s actions irrational…. Palm is just trying to cover its bases while throwing a Hail Mary…. If the Pre or Pixie don’t work for Palm they will probably go out of business.

That’s in perfect harmony with what the majority of industry watchers have been saying. And Palm’s dire situation is exactly what makes me believe they are, in fact, working on this lower-end Pre.

Palm seems to have, so far (and to their credit), remained silent on the issue, and I sure hope they don’t change that; this news has to be stonewalled, and the team working on this thing — if it truly is in production — need to be silenced. They must be made to understand that continuing to leak this stuff may land them jobless.

The remaining difficultly, however, is that if this lower-tier Pre really _is_ in production, there’s also just so much Palm will be able to do to control information about it from leaking further.

With or without this story, Palm has already been looking at an uphill battle: they’ve been teetering on the verge of collapse, having survived only by the virtue of some venture capitalists; they’re coming to market with a new, unproven product against competitor whose product and services are not only powerful and established, but this competitor is furthermore in the process of ascending with accelerating momentum; and they’re partnering with Sprint (at least in the US) to do it.

Ashok Kumar, an analyst with Collins Stewart, has expressed doubts of his own about the Pre’s chances at market success (though unrelated to the potential existence of this lower-tier phone). John Biggs, of TechCrunch, wrote an article responding to Kumar’s assessments, concluding:

Not to go all fanboy, but the Palm Pre is a compelling phone. Unless they completely fail in manufacturing, they can’t do much to break the momentum they’ve thus far gained.

While I do [cref 142 agree emphatically] that the Pre is a compelling phone, I must disagree with the latter part of John’s statement; there’s plenty Palm can do to break their momentum. Let’s hope the Pre team keep on their game.

As I’d advised yesterday: poker faces as you enter the battlefield, gentleman.

Palm Pre-Fucking Themselves?

TechCrunch is reporting that Palm is already creating a second WebOS device, code named Pixie, that will be a “low end” version of its upcoming (and as-yet unreleased) Pre.

From the post:

The Pixie will use the same WebOS operating system and software as the Palm Pre, but in a smaller candy-bar form factor and a target $99 price point, say our sources. It will be released only a few months after the Pre in June, so this isn’t an upgrade device. It’s targeted at the lower end of the market.

I’m sorry, but this is all sorts of stupid.

For one, prove the concept first. Get the software out there, see what the initial responses are, and refine a bit. See if it sells. See what is and isn’t not working just right; it’s entirely possible a fundamental design decision of the hardware somehow needs to be reconsidered based in this information. Then — with some market reaction data in hand — think about a different flavor of hardware that could at least have the benefit of being informed by response to the initial model.

Secondly, they’re launching a new platform which will have to court developers into its fold with two different screen sizes. Developers interested in targeting both will therefore have a two-device testing matrix out of the gates. Some will go for the full-size features of the Pre, and others will target the Pixie.

Finally, but most importantly, they’re going to fracture consumer interest. Bringing two similar products to market like this will force prospective consumers to ask themselves which one they want, and whether they “really need” whatever’s in the “big” one. In these times, more consumers are likely to steer in an economical direction, given what may well be a relatively equal set of choices, and since Palm would presumably use lower-powered hardware for the Pixie, the general consumer experience will likely feel more constrained.

I’m scared to death that Palm is killing the most promising new smartphone announced in a little over two years, before the poor thing has even come into the market.

There seems to be some question as to whether the project is completely green-lit, as Arrington mentions:

One source says it’s full steam ahead. Another says Palm is waiting to see how the Pre does before announcing the Pixie.

But, frankly, letting the information leak out like this (and at least having someone think this effort is “full steam ahead”) is enough to every bit as much harm as the actual release of the product; the anticipators will begin to demand its release, and start to play a wait-and-see, betting that Palm eventually will drop the Pixie.

And the pundits will buzz about it, and Palm will see weak sales on its Pre, and cave into the expectation of the Pixie’s release.

As I’d previously said: as die-hard an iPhone fan as I indeed am, I have been [cref 142 keenly looking forward to the Pre], both as a product of wonder and accomplishment, and as some great and much-needed competition for the iPhone, which will only make my favorite phone better, in the long-run.

Palm: good luck.

30 Apr @ 14:34: Let me add that this, of course, is merely rumor at this time; Palm has not officially announced anything. That said, TechCrunch has another post claiming to have dug up even more details. I would note that the claimed “shaky” photo of the Pixie in my original link above differs significantly in proportion from what is shown on the photo in this latest post.

Is Apple Talking With Verizon?

BusinessWeek is carrying a story by Spencer E. Ante and Arik Hesseldahl, claiming familiarity with talks between Apple and Verizon regarding some upcoming “iPhone-like” products.

From the article:

Verizon Wireless is in talks with Apple to distribute two new iPhone-like devices, BusinessWeek has learned. Apple has created prototypes of the devices, and discussions reaching back a half-year have involved Apple CEO Steve Jobs, according to two people familiar with the matter.

Interestingly, the devices are described thus:

One device is a smaller, less expensive calling device described by a person who has seen it as an “iPhone lite.” The other is a media pad that would let users listen to music, view photos, and watch high-definition videos, the person says. It would place calls over a Wi-Fi connection.

This seems to dovetail with predictions made by [cref 13 commenter] Richard Monson-Haefel.

I think they’re on-point with respect to the tablet form-factor, as well as the fact that it will certainly be a fabulous platform for media consumption, and the like.

But I just don’t know about this Verizon business. My salt grain here comes from Apple’s insistence that GSM is the way to go for mobile, whereas Verizon’s networks are CDMA. Then again, that comment was in direct reference to the iPhone itself.

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Windows 7's Exciting New Feature: It Runs Windows XP

Troubled times are here for Microsoft; truly troubled times.

I’m not referring to their first reported decline in quarterly earnings, and I’m not even talking about the repeated extension of the cut-off date for selling XP.

Paul Thurott of the SuperSite for Windows blog says:

we were briefed about a secret Microsoft technology that […] would ship in final form simultaneously with the final version of Windows 7 […] dubbed Windows XP Mode (XPM, formerly Virtual Windows XP or Virtual XP, VXP)….

So Windows 7’s killer new feature is that it runs an older version of Windows.

I get Paul’s point that this truly provides an opportunity for Microsoft to finally start making the sort of aggressive, much needed, and — frankly — long-overdue changes to Window’s central architecture, while delivering (most of) the compatibility requirements its enterprise customers have. I even agree that this is, in fact, a wise choice.

But there’s a reason Microsoft has kept this under embargo until now; it really says something about the state of their flagship product… something it seems they didn’t want to have to say.

Engaging With Limits

John Gruber of Daring Fireball yesterday wrote about the incredible variety of UI solutions to be found in the various Twitter client apps.

From the post:

[T]hat it is not easy to write a good client for something as small in scope as Twitter hints at just how hard it is to write a good app for anything, let alone something truly complex.

I would add only that I feel like Twitter’s simplicity imposes a number of limitations upon developers, which — I believe — contributes in no small way to the diversity of these solutions; engaging with limits is the most powerful catalyst for creative brilliance.

Mesopotamia 2.0

A bunch of Silicon Valley execs are in Iraq, apparently “explore new opportunities to support Iraqi government and non-government stakeholders in Iraq’s emerging new media industry.”

From the press release:

The delegation […] will provide conceptual input as well as ideas on how new technologies can be used to build local capacity, foster greater transparency and accountability, build upon anti-corruption efforts, promote critical thinking in the classroom, scale-up civil society, and further empower local entities and individuals by providing the tools for network building.

I can’t decide whether this is pure genius or utter madness. [Via TechCrunch]