I recently bought my very first non-Apple computer. It’s a netbook — the HP Mini 1120 NR. It comes in two flavors: Windows XP and Linux. The Linux is a heavily customized version of Ubuntu 8.04, which HP calls MIE (Mobile Internet Experience).
As a years-long Mac user (since 1991), the decision to purchase a non-Apple computer was not one I settled upon lightly.
Jason Kincaid writes about the insights of Google CEO Eric Schmidt:
[Schmidt] talked about Netbooks… saying the the unit numbers were becoming material and that use cases were “consistent with the cloud computing model” that Google is focusing on with Google Docs, Gmail and other services.
And this isn’t some smokescreen or distractionary tactic; Schmidt’s words are true to Google’s actions. Why do you suppose Chrome is designed to spawn each of its tabs as a separate process on its host OS? [jump to 1:40]
Google sees “cloud computing” (read: Chrome) as the platform for the netbook, not Android.
With the offline storage capabilities coming in HTML5, it seems thatweb browser operating systems are less laughable by the day.
BusinessWeek is carrying a story by Spencer E. Ante and Arik Hesseldahl, claiming familiarity with talks between Apple and Verizon regarding some upcoming “iPhone-like” products.
From the article:
Verizon Wireless is in talks with Apple to distribute two new iPhone-like devices, BusinessWeek has learned. Apple has created prototypes of the devices, and discussions reaching back a half-year have involved Apple CEO Steve Jobs, according to two people familiar with the matter.
Interestingly, the devices are described thus:
One device is a smaller, less expensive calling device described by a person who has seen it as an “iPhone lite.” The other is a media pad that would let users listen to music, view photos, and watch high-definition videos, the person says. It would place calls over a Wi-Fi connection.
This seems to dovetail with predictions made by commenter Richard Monson-Haefel.
I think they’re on-point with respect to the tablet form-factor, as well as the fact that it will certainly be a fabulous platform for media consumption, and the like.
But I just don’t know about this Verizon business. My salt grain here comes from Apple’s insistence that GSM is the way to go for mobile, whereas Verizon’s networks are CDMA. Then again, that comment was in direct reference to the iPhone itself.
I received a bit of feedback, on- and off-blog, about my Apple "netbook" rumor speculation, with a number of folks remarking that such a device as I’d described would essentially cannibalize MacBook sales. As reader Andrew23 puts it:
adding the finder would make it far too macbook-ey, and I think they’d want to keep that distinction [from becoming] blurry; neither a macbook nor an iPhone, something else entirely. By that token I wonder if the “hybrid mode” is realistic, since it reduces the need to have a macbook…
Now, I’d given this matter some consideration myself, but I don’t see any real danger of that.
The “iBook” [again, a name I personally resurrected for it] is clearly neither iPhone nor an iPod Touch: it’s not pocket-sized and doesn’t place or receive calls. In fact, as I thought about the iPhone in relation to this device, I wondered if maybe “tether” mode might have as much to do with this new device, as with MacBook users.
With respect to resembling the MacBooks or iMacs, this machine will be comparatively underpowered and simply won’t have the software (read: no iLife). Additionally, there will be a huge difference with respect to display; this new device will likely not offer an external display connector of any sort, either. I believe display size alone may be enough to incentivize a consumer capable of affording the extra cash towards an alternative system.
So, while it’s fair to expect there will certainly be some cannibalization, I don’t foresee it happening to any greater degree than the extent to which the iPhone cannibalized iPod sales, or the iPod Touch cannibalized iPhone sales.
And, as Steve Jobs once himself said: if someone’s going to cannibalize Apple’s sales, better that it’s Apple.
Plus, with as well as the App Store has performed for Apple, I would venture to guess that whatever they might lose in minor cannibalization will likely be more than compensated for on the app sales side of the unit purchase.
Speaking of apps, another commenter to my original post, Richard Monson-Haefel, writes:
It’s my theory – and that’s all it is – that the 10” screen will be a new video platform. Where the iPod came to dominate music players and the iPhone has become a seemingly unstoppable force in the mobile phone industry, the 10” mystery device will be Apple’s foray into a portable video game and video movie players. [...] And I tell you another thing: the 10” tablet is not intended for productivity applications any more than the iPhone was meant for word processing.
I sure have to agree with respect to the media and gaming opportunities on this thing; in fact, I’m willing to wager that games will port over from the iPhone relatively easily (at least as compared with many of the other apps), as they tend to use customized UIs largely based on CoreAnimation and OpenGL.
I must, however, disagree with the argument that a 10″ screen would be unsuitable for productivity apps, as the Eee PC 10″ models—now in its third generation—are performing well with respect to sales (and even sell units with 9″ and even 7″ screens. I’m confident that 10″—particularly with a good pixel density—will be fine for rudimentary productivity needs.
Having a Mac Pro at home, I’d personally opt to trade my MacBook in for this hypothetical hybrid device.
Relatedly, my skepticism about a June announcement may prove overly-conservative, as Apple is apparently taking bids for the manufacture of this device; that’s not something that can happen until all the hardware decisions are locked down.
WARNING: wild conjecture ahead. Please note that all that follows is complete and utter conjecture; I do not claim to have any sources inside Apple.
That said, it seems increasingly likely that Apple will reveal a new product intended to compete in the netbook product space in the near future, with the world largely expecting an announcement at this year’s WWDC in June.
Steve Jobs was famously quoted in 2008 as saying:
We don’t know how to build a sub-$500 computer that is not a piece of junk.
Indeed many pundits in the tech media have criticized Apple’s lack of a netbook offering.
A number of critics have even cited Apple’s absence from this market space as evidence of their inability to recognize market trends, or complete disconnect from the realities of consumer tastes… because there’s no company in the world with quite as poor a sense of trends and consumer tastes as Apple.
But when Apple’s COO, Tim Cook, was more recently asked about whether Apple had plans to ship a netbook, during Apple’s Q1 2009 conference call, he responded:
We’re watching that space, but right now from our point of view, the products in there are principally based on hardware that’s much less powerful than we think customers want, software technology that is not good, cramped keyboards, small displays.
We don’t think people will be pleased with those products. It’s a category we watch, we’ve got some ideas here, but right now we think the products are inferior and will not provide an experience to customers they’re happy with.
While some critics have interpreted Cook’s statement as further evidence that Apple is altogether snubbing the product category, it seems to me instead that Tim is rather simply stating that they’re not competing in that space because they’re working on fixing everything that sucks about the products presently in the category.
And with news that Apple has placed an order for a batch of 10-inch LCD screens from Wintek, it seems like they may feel like they’re on the verge of solving these problems since nothing on their current product line utilizes that screen size.
And so I strongly anticipate a new Apple product that will occupy a slot between the MacBook and the iPhone / iPod Touch.
But what will it look like? Read more…
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