The idea is real simple: excitement thrives on suspense and anticipation.

The members of the audience expect to be led through a flight of experience — they want ups, downs, twists, and turns. Nothing is more boring and tedious than a predictable sequence of events that lead to some obvious outcome that had been aniticpated all along. Interestingly, in fact, even when an outcome is known in advance (say, as is the case for a narrative based on historical events), the audience can still find the thrills and delight they seek, if the “show” can offer them something they weren’t necessarily specifically expecting at the start.

The capacity to offer the unexpected boils down to managing reveals.

But this isn’t just a technique for playwrites and novelists; it’s also a powerful tactic that can be leveraged in business. Advertisers use it all the time, in designing ad campaigns aiming to generate business for the clientele.

One of the masters at this game is — you knew this was coming — Apple. Though they have received much criticism at various times through the years over their hallmark practices of tight secrecy, it’s impossible to deny just how much anicipation and frenzied suspense they’re able to stir up — every time. They’ve got the formula down.

This is why I contend that Palm’s recent leaks stand to be so detrimental to the Pre’s success.

The fact is that Palm is entering a battlefield against a very well-situated competitor who is a master of this art. I’ve chosen to go with the “battlefield” metaphor for a very particular reason, too — the Reveal is also a vital tool in strategic engagements. Consider what would have happened if the Achaeans built their stories-tall wooden horse at the foot of Troy’s walls.

Of course, we don’t truly know that these “leaks” have any truth to them.

My instinct — and that’s all it is — is unfortunately telling me that there is. As Tahero had commented yesterday:

[T]he threat of impending doom has a way of making one’s actions irrational…. Palm is just trying to cover its bases while throwing a Hail Mary…. If the Pre or Pixie don’t work for Palm they will probably go out of business.

That’s in perfect harmony with what the majority of industry watchers have been saying. And Palm’s dire situation is exactly what makes me believe they are, in fact, working on this lower-end Pre.

Palm seems to have, so far (and to their credit), remained silent on the issue, and I sure hope they don’t change that; this news has to be stonewalled, and the team working on this thing — if it truly is in production — need to be silenced. They must be made to understand that continuing to leak this stuff may land them jobless.

The remaining difficultly, however, is that if this lower-tier Pre really is in production, there’s also just so much Palm will be able to do to control information about it from leaking further.

With or without this story, Palm has already been looking at an uphill battle: they’ve been teetering on the verge of collapse, having survived only by the virtue of some venture capitalists; they’re coming to market with a new, unproven product against competitor whose product and services are not only powerful and established, but this competitor is furthermore in the process of ascending with accelerating momentum; and they’re partnering with Sprint (at least in the US) to do it.

Ashok Kumar, an analyst with Collins Stewart, has expressed doubts of his own about the Pre’s chances at market success (though unrelated to the potential existence of this lower-tier phone). John Biggs, of TechCrunch, wrote an article responding to Kumar’s assessments, concluding:

Not to go all fanboy, but the Palm Pre is a compelling phone. Unless they completely fail in manufacturing, they can’t do much to break the momentum they’ve thus far gained.

While I do agree emphatically that the Pre is a compelling phone, I must disagree with the latter part of John’s statement; there’s plenty Palm can do to break their momentum. Let’s hope the Pre team keep on their game.

As I’d advised yesterday: poker faces as you enter the battlefield, gentleman.