Uncarved

Michael Arrington of TechCrunch published a post Friday, titled The Truth: What’s Really Going On With Apple, Google, AT&T And The FCC. It is—in my opinion—a fairly insightful piece, particularly regarding his analysis of Apple’s seemingly misleading wording behind their reasons for “not approving” the Google Voice app for inclusion in the App Store.

I do believe that Apple perceives a risk behind allowing this particular piece of software “hijack,” as it were, the iPhone user experience, particularly as the Google Voice service will likely become wildly popular amongst the demographic of folks who are attracted to products like iPhones. I must also note that Apple themselves pulled quite a similar customer “hijacking” trick on AT&T with the iPhone.

So if anyone knows the smell of this type of usurpation, it’s Apple. They’re also right to fear it.

I ultimately get exactly why Apple attempted to block it: to paraphrase the late father of a past girlfriend of mine, if you’re not pulling at least one foul per game, you’re just not playing hard enough.

It’s all a game of strategy, folks, and the stakes in the competition for slices of the burgeoning mobile Internet device market are pretty damned high.

Arrington does make one claim, however, that I just can’t get behind. He writes:

[Apple is] jealously guarding control of their users and trying to block Google and other third party developers at every turn from getting their superior applications in front those users.

The first half is spot-on, but the second half is very wrong—they are not fearful of developers offering better software than their apps. Apple doesn’t care, for example, about superior stock tracking, weather, or memo programs.

They do care about Safari, Phone, Contacts, Calendar, Mail, Messages, and iPod, App Store, and iTunes applications: they are the signature apps of the core iPhone user experience.

If Google Voice takes over the dialer, a significant problem is introduced: people may likely start demanding that the phone experience is designed around the Google Voice service. In such a case, Apple will have lost control of the UX of this core component of the product, as they would then have to choose between two paths:

1. chase after the Google Voice UX requirements, OR
2. consciously choosing to ignore it, causing customers that want it evaluate switching to an Android phone.

Apple are specifically looking to control the core user experience of the device, but that’s what Apple does, and what’s more: that’s what we (largely) want them to do! Their passion for that sort of thing is directly attributable for the design excellence of their products.

In any case, the ref is on the field, and we’ll get a call on the game play. The only certainty here is that—whatever call the FCC ultimately makes—the outcome will be interesting.

My call: offensive holding.

Business Sense, Conversation Apple, Google, Google Voice, iPhone, iPhone app

Take this sucker with huge grains of salt.

Not sure how I’d feel about each app having its own keyboard, but who’s to say which details would make it into the shipping version, and which not?

Check it out Apple, rumor, video

Gruber, writing about what he calls the Apple Way (emphasis added):

Are software touchscreen keyboards good for everyone? Certainly not. But this is another aspect of the Apple Way. Apple tries to make things that many people love, not things that all people like. The key is that they’re not afraid of the staunch criticism, and often outright derision, that comes with breaking conventions.

[...]

That the iPhone — or specifically its software touchscreen keyboard — does not appeal to everyone is not a problem. Nothing appeals to everyone. Even if you try to make something that appeals to everyone by adding every single clamored-for feature, you wind up with something like Windows that does not appeal to people with a taste for the elegant and refined.

And so Apple demonstrate mastery of yet another classic showmanship tactic: know your audience.

General Thoughts Apple, Design

I recently bought my very first non-Apple computer. It’s a netbook — the HP Mini 1120 NR. It comes in two flavors: Windows XP and Linux. The Linux is a heavily customized version of Ubuntu 8.04, which HP calls MIE (Mobile Internet Experience).

As a years-long Mac user (since 1991), the decision to purchase a non-Apple computer was not one I settled upon lightly.

Read more…

General Thoughts Apple, HP Mini, Linux, Mac OS X, MIE, netbook

Erik Sherman of BNET Technology highlights some interesting points:

Let’s start with the easy evidence: Apple hired Richard Teversham from the entertainment division of Microsoft. The 15-year Microsoft vet most recently headed strategy for the Xbox group in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia.

That’s on the heels of hiring Bob Dreblin, the creator of Nintendo’s Game Cube CPU, from AMD, as well as former top IBM chip design manager Mark Papermaster, and former AMD graphics chip CTO Raja Koduri.

Apple’s has tried at least once to enter the hardware gaming market, and has even made a number of other software attempts, such as Game Sprockets SDK, and even started to sell a handful of games for the “click wheel” iPod, but it wasn’t until the iPhone and its App Store came along that they managed any serious traction.

And with the growing emphasis Apple has been putting on gaming during their iPhone OS new release demonstrations, it’s getting harder to ignore that they’re gearing up to make a big strike here.

Linking Out Apple, gaming, rumors

The recent media coverage about Palm having a lower-tier WebOS phone in the works — which I’ve already labled as madness, if true — has gotten me thinking about an old showmanship concept, called the art of the Reveal (or, more simply, the Reveal). It’s a technique exploited by writers, directors, comedians, strippers, politicians, and carnies; anyone in the business of organizing a show.

The idea is real simple: excitement thrives on suspense and anticipation.

The members of the audience expect to be led through a flight of experience — they want ups, downs, twists, and turns. Nothing is more boring and tedious than a predictable sequence of events that lead to some obvious outcome that had been aniticpated all along. Interestingly, in fact, even when an outcome is known in advance (say, as is the case for a narrative based on historical events), the audience can still find the thrills and delight they seek, if the “show” can offer them something they weren’t necessarily specifically expecting at the start.

The capacity to offer the unexpected boils down to managing reveals.

But this isn’t just a technique for playwrites and novelists; it’s also a powerful tactic that can be leveraged in business. Advertisers use it all the time, in designing ad campaigns aiming to generate business for the clientele.

One of the masters at this game is — you knew this was coming — Apple. Though they have received much criticism at various times through the years over their hallmark practices of tight secrecy, it’s impossible to deny just how much anicipation and frenzied suspense they’re able to stir up — every time. They’ve got the formula down.

This is why I contend that Palm’s recent leaks stand to be so detrimental to the Pre’s success.

The fact is that Palm is entering a battlefield against a very well-situated competitor who is a master of this art. I’ve chosen to go with the “battlefield” metaphor for a very particular reason, too — the Reveal is also a vital tool in strategic engagements. Consider what would have happened if the Achaeans built their stories-tall wooden horse at the foot of Troy’s walls.

Of course, we don’t truly know that these “leaks” have any truth to them.

My instinct — and that’s all it is — is unfortunately telling me that there is. As Tahero had commented yesterday:

[T]he threat of impending doom has a way of making one’s actions irrational…. Palm is just trying to cover its bases while throwing a Hail Mary…. If the Pre or Pixie don’t work for Palm they will probably go out of business.

That’s in perfect harmony with what the majority of industry watchers have been saying. And Palm’s dire situation is exactly what makes me believe they are, in fact, working on this lower-end Pre.

Palm seems to have, so far (and to their credit), remained silent on the issue, and I sure hope they don’t change that; this news has to be stonewalled, and the team working on this thing — if it truly is in production — need to be silenced. They must be made to understand that continuing to leak this stuff may land them jobless.

The remaining difficultly, however, is that if this lower-tier Pre really is in production, there’s also just so much Palm will be able to do to control information about it from leaking further.

With or without this story, Palm has already been looking at an uphill battle: they’ve been teetering on the verge of collapse, having survived only by the virtue of some venture capitalists; they’re coming to market with a new, unproven product against competitor whose product and services are not only powerful and established, but this competitor is furthermore in the process of ascending with accelerating momentum; and they’re partnering with Sprint (at least in the US) to do it.

Ashok Kumar, an analyst with Collins Stewart, has expressed doubts of his own about the Pre’s chances at market success (though unrelated to the potential existence of this lower-tier phone). John Biggs, of TechCrunch, wrote an article responding to Kumar’s assessments, concluding:

Not to go all fanboy, but the Palm Pre is a compelling phone. Unless they completely fail in manufacturing, they can’t do much to break the momentum they’ve thus far gained.

While I do agree emphatically that the Pre is a compelling phone, I must disagree with the latter part of John’s statement; there’s plenty Palm can do to break their momentum. Let’s hope the Pre team keep on their game.

As I’d advised yesterday: poker faces as you enter the battlefield, gentleman.

General Thoughts Apple, art of the reveal, Palm Pre, rumors

I received a bit of feedback, on- and off-blog, about my Apple "netbook" rumor speculation, with a number of folks remarking that such a device as I’d described would essentially cannibalize MacBook sales. As reader Andrew23 puts it:

adding the finder would make it far too macbook-ey, and I think they’d want to keep that distinction [from becoming] blurry; neither a macbook nor an iPhone, something else entirely. By that token I wonder if the “hybrid mode” is realistic, since it reduces the need to have a macbook…

Now, I’d given this matter some consideration myself, but I don’t see any real danger of that.

The “iBook” [again, a name I personally resurrected for it] is clearly neither iPhone nor an iPod Touch: it’s not pocket-sized and doesn’t place or receive calls. In fact, as I thought about the iPhone in relation to this device, I wondered if maybe “tether” mode might have as much to do with this new device, as with MacBook users.

With respect to resembling the MacBooks or iMacs, this machine will be comparatively underpowered and simply won’t have the software (read: no iLife). Additionally, there will be a huge difference with respect to display; this new device will likely not offer an external display connector of any sort, either. I believe display size alone may be enough to incentivize a consumer capable of affording the extra cash towards an alternative system.

So, while it’s fair to expect there will certainly be some cannibalization, I don’t foresee it happening to any greater degree than the extent to which the iPhone cannibalized iPod sales, or the iPod Touch cannibalized iPhone sales.

And, as Steve Jobs once himself said: if someone’s going to cannibalize Apple’s sales, better that it’s Apple.

Plus, with as well as the App Store has performed for Apple, I would venture to guess that whatever they might lose in minor cannibalization will likely be more than compensated for on the app sales side of the unit purchase.

Speaking of apps, another commenter to my original post, Richard Monson-Haefel, writes:

It’s my theory – and that’s all it is – that the 10” screen will be a new video platform. Where the iPod came to dominate music players and the iPhone has become a seemingly unstoppable force in the mobile phone industry, the 10” mystery device will be Apple’s foray into a portable video game and video movie players. [...] And I tell you another thing: the 10” tablet is not intended for productivity applications any more than the iPhone was meant for word processing.

I sure have to agree with respect to the media and gaming opportunities on this thing; in fact, I’m willing to wager that games will port over from the iPhone relatively easily (at least as compared with many of the other apps), as they tend to use customized UIs largely based on CoreAnimation and OpenGL.

I must, however, disagree with the argument that a 10″ screen would be unsuitable for productivity apps, as the Eee PC 10″ models—now in its third generation—are performing well with respect to sales (and even sell units with 9″ and even 7″ screens. I’m confident that 10″—particularly with a good pixel density—will be fine for rudimentary productivity needs.

Having a Mac Pro at home, I’d personally opt to trade my MacBook in for this hypothetical hybrid device.

Relatedly, my skepticism about a June announcement may prove overly-conservative, as Apple is apparently taking bids for the manufacture of this device; that’s not something that can happen until all the hardware decisions are locked down.

Predictions Apple, follow-up, netbook, prediction, tablet

WARNING: wild conjecture ahead. Please note that all that follows is complete and utter conjecture; I do not claim to have any sources inside Apple.

That said, it seems increasingly likely that Apple will reveal a new product intended to compete in the netbook product space in the near future, with the world largely expecting an announcement at this year’s WWDC in June.

Steve Jobs was famously quoted in 2008 as saying:

We don’t know how to build a sub-$500 computer that is not a piece of junk.

Indeed many pundits in the tech media have criticized Apple’s lack of a netbook offering.

A number of critics have even cited Apple’s absence from this market space as evidence of their inability to recognize market trends, or complete disconnect from the realities of consumer tastes… because there’s no company in the world with quite as poor a sense of trends and consumer tastes as Apple.

But when Apple’s COO, Tim Cook, was more recently asked about whether Apple had plans to ship a netbook, during Apple’s Q1 2009 conference call, he responded:

We’re watching that space, but right now from our point of view, the products in there are principally based on hardware that’s much less powerful than we think customers want, software technology that is not good, cramped keyboards, small displays.

We don’t think people will be pleased with those products. It’s a category we watch, we’ve got some ideas here, but right now we think the products are inferior and will not provide an experience to customers they’re happy with.

While some critics have interpreted Cook’s statement as further evidence that Apple is altogether snubbing the product category, it seems to me instead that Tim is rather simply stating that they’re not competing in that space because they’re working on fixing everything that sucks about the products presently in the category.

And with news that Apple has placed an order for a batch of 10-inch LCD screens from Wintek, it seems like they may feel like they’re on the verge of solving these problems since nothing on their current product line utilizes that screen size.

And so I strongly anticipate a new Apple product that will occupy a slot between the MacBook and the iPhone / iPod Touch.

But what will it look like? Read more…

Predictions Apple, netbook, prediction

As evidenced by my recent post history, I’ve been thinking quite a bit about the upcoming iPhone OS 3.0, Apple’s rumored “netbook” device, and generally evaluating Apple’s products from a product design perspective.

Although Apple’s revenues are driven largely by hardware sales, it’s the software running on that hardware that actually delivers the value. After all, Apple doesn’t have exclusive access to any hardware components that aren’t also available, in some form, to their competitors. Sure, there are some chips they create in-house, but these components certainly have direct competitors in the market. A variety of vendors produce comparable touch-screen technology, graphics chip sets, and the rest.

Apple has long touted software quality as their products’ key differentiator, and they’ve been aggressively developing their operating system (I’ll delve deeper into this particular term later on) as the centerpiece of their software ecosystem.

This common software code base is presently powering Macs, iPhones, iPod Touch, and even Apple TV.

This is brilliant. Read more…

Canon Apple, lexicon, OS X, OS X variants

I’m going to call my prediction a bust.

While technically managed to I land a 50/50 hit rate on my specific feature predictions, I had predicted that — when all was said and done — today’s announcements will have revealed features that declaratively positioned the iPhone OS as a capable netbook OS product.

Specifically, I was really expecting the application switcher, so I was a bit bummed.

In retrospect, however, this doesn’t conform to known Apple announcement behavior. Neither to their secretive practices, nor to their marketing talent for focusing with razor-sharp clarity on a particular message.

Today was about the product they have on the market: the iPhone.

The announced features all basically add up specifically towards making the iPhone a better smart phone.

That said, many of the features announced today will certainly contribute towards a wonderful netbook product. I’ll discuss which ones in a later post — stay tuned.

18 Mar @ 01:26: After having personally watched the Spotlight demo portion of the video, I’m going to actually award myself a half-point on the arrival of a new application launcher; Spotlight’s search results lead with apps whose name contain the search text.

Predictions Apple, follow-up, iPhone, iPhone OS, prediction